U.S. Sunflower Oil Prices 2025, Size, Trend, Graph, News and Forecast



North America

The North American sunflower oil market in Q4 2024 exhibited marked volatility, unfolding in distinct phases of price movement. October saw a sharp price surge, primarily driven by supply-side constraints such as geopolitical instability in the Black Sea region and unfavorable weather in key producing areas. Domestic production costs rose significantly due to elevated agricultural input prices and reduced yields, while pre-holiday demand added to the upward pressure.

The bullish momentum extended into November, fueled by a sharp decline in U.S. sunflower production as farmers pivoted toward more profitable crops like soybeans. Drought conditions in European growing regions further tightened global supply, sustaining the rally and intensifying market volatility.

In December, the market reversed course with a clear bearish shift. Increased global production—especially from Eastern Europe—created a surplus, softening prices. A stronger U.S. dollar undermined export competitiveness, while growing competition from alternative vegetable oils added downward pressure. Despite falling end-product prices, domestic processors maintained stable margins thanks to lower raw material costs. The combination of tepid consumer demand, increased international competition, and improved global supply contributed to a bearish outlook by the quarter’s end.

Get Real time Prices for sunflower oil: https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/sunflower-oil-1315

Asia Pacific

China’s sunflower oil market was notably volatile in Q4 2024, marked by a strong price rally in October followed by a decline in December. The initial spike stemmed from tightened global supply, particularly due to reduced harvests in the Black Sea region, with Ukraine’s output falling to 5.6 million metric tons.

By December, prices had dropped by 4%, influenced by several key factors: increased availability of soybean oil, a rebound in Russian sunflower oil exports driven by better-than-expected harvests, and the delayed enforcement of the EU Deforestation Regulation, which allowed steady flows of palm and soy oils. A 0.77% depreciation of the yuan against the U.S. dollar also weighed on import appetite.

In response, Chinese buyers adopted a more strategic approach—drawing on existing inventories and shifting toward more cost-effective alternatives such as palm and soybean oils. This realignment in procurement strategy, along with sufficient domestic stockpiles and cautious buying behavior, led to lower transaction volumes in December. As the quarter concluded, China had effectively navigated market uncertainties by diversifying its edible oil portfolio and reducing its reliance on sunflower oil.

Europe

Ukraine’s sunflower oil market in Q4 2024 experienced a net upward price trend, punctuated by volatility driven by both supply and demand dynamics. October brought a sharp price increase due to smaller harvests caused by adverse weather—particularly drought and storms across Eastern Europe. Many Ukrainian farmers withheld sunflower seed stocks in anticipation of higher prices, limiting availability for processors. Strong international demand further drove up port prices.

November sustained this upward trajectory as the harvest season ended, shrinking fresh supply. Geopolitical tensions and disruptions in Black Sea logistics compounded export difficulties, while rising input costs—especially energy and fertilizer—exerted additional upward pressure. Domestic stockpiling for winter food security further reduced export volumes, pushing prices higher.

However, December marked a turning point. Russia introduced aggressive pricing to offload inventories ahead of a tax increase, creating strong downward pressure. Weak demand from Turkey and cautious purchasing behavior from European buyers added to the bearish sentiment. Operational headwinds—such as reduced crushing activity and limited farmer sales—amplified market weakness. While a modest rebound may occur after the New Year, Ukrainian sunflower oil prices are likely to remain under pressure in the short term.

Get Real time Prices for sunflower oil: https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/sunflower-oil-1315

 

 

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