U.S. Soybean Oil Prices 2025, Size, Trend, Graph, News and Forecast

The North American soybean oil market began Q4 2024 on a strong note, driven by supply constraints and robust demand, especially from the renewable diesel sector. However, the quarter ended with a bearish shift due to global and domestic pressures.

From October through November, tight supplies—exacerbated by poor weather in the Midwest—and increasing demand for renewable energy feedstocks pushed prices upward. Policy incentives for biofuel production and a revised downward estimate of the U.S. soybean crop due to droughts further supported price gains. The USDA’s WASDE report highlighted strong biofuel demand, reinforcing bullish market sentiment. Nevertheless, competition from Brazil and modest domestic production increases moderated the overall rally.

By December, the trend reversed as global oversupply, particularly from Brazil, weighed on prices. Weakening crude oil prices led to reduced biodiesel demand, while a stronger U.S. dollar and competition from alternative oils like sunflower oil added further downward pressure. Broader economic uncertainties, including inflation and fears of a global slowdown, dampened demand, contributing to a softening in prices and a slight decrease in ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year.

Get Real time Prices for Soybean Oil: https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/soybean-oil-1318

China's soybean oil market experienced significant volatility during Q4 2024, shaped by both internal dynamics and global market shifts.

In October, favorable soybean crushing margins and tight global vegetable oil supplies—particularly palm oil—drove up export prices. Strong international demand, coupled with reduced output forecasts in major producing countries like the U.S., further pushed prices higher. November continued this upward momentum as domestic demand remained firm, especially from the food and biodiesel sectors, which constrained export availability. The yuan's depreciation also enhanced export competitiveness despite rising local prices.

However, by December, the market cooled. Demand from downstream sectors such as food processing and livestock weakened, and expectations of potential policy shifts further eroded market sentiment. Increased domestic supply, along with more competitively priced alternatives like sunflower oil, contributed to a price downturn, signaling a bearish market outlook.

Ukraine’s soybean oil market in Q4 2024 was shaped by geopolitical instability, shifting global demand, and seasonal market dynamics.

October saw a surge in exports, particularly to Europe and Turkey, driven by competitive pricing and growing global demand. Despite challenges within Ukraine's agriculture sector—such as declining crop acreage and rising logistics costs—exports benefited from favorable global price dynamics, including reduced U.S. yields and strong Brazilian harvests.

Prices remained elevated in November, supported by firm export demand. However, domestic logistical issues and geopolitical tensions restricted supply chain efficiency. Global competition from other vegetable oils like palm and sunflower oil also played a role in sustaining prices.

By December, the market softened as high inventories and an abundant harvest led to oversupply. Sluggish export demand, stiff competition from sunflower oil, and currency depreciations (euro and hryvnia) eroded purchasing sentiment. Seasonal demand slowdowns and weaker industrial activity further pressured prices, resulting in a broadly bearish domestic market despite favorable export opportunities earlier in the quarter.

Brazil’s soybean oil market experienced a largely bearish Q4 2024, though signs of recovery emerged toward the end of the quarter.

October began with falling export prices due to oversupply, bolstered by favorable planting conditions and subdued global demand. High domestic inventories, economic challenges in importing countries, and increased adoption of cheaper alternatives like palm oil further pressured prices. The depreciating Brazilian real made exports more attractive but did little to counteract the broader market softness.

In November, Brazil’s soybean production surged 10% year-on-year, contributing to record-high global stocks. Argentina's production recovery intensified regional competition, while Brazil’s biodiesel policy redirected more soybean oil for domestic consumption, reducing export volumes to 2.55 million tons—down sharply from 5.2 million in 2023.

However, December brought a shift. Adverse weather and logistical bottlenecks constrained supply just as global demand—especially from Asia and Europe—picked up. These factors, combined with upward price movements in other vegetable oils and tightening domestic availability due to biodiesel mandates, reversed the earlier trend. As a result, the market showed signs of recovery, ending the quarter on a firmer footing.

Get Real time Prices for Soybean Oil: https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/soybean-oil-1318

 

 

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