Diesel Prices 2025, Size, Trend, Graph, News and Forecast



North America

In Q4 2024, Diesel prices in the United States trended downward, largely due to increased supply and a softening economy. While October recorded a brief uptick in prices, this reversed in November as refineries resumed full operations following maintenance, easing earlier supply constraints.

The return to full production helped stabilize supply, placing downward pressure on prices. Additionally, a milder-than-expected start to winter reduced demand for heating oil, further contributing to lower diesel prices. By December, the trend continued as inventories grew and demand weakened amid reduced domestic consumption and a less severe winter. Although regions like California experienced modest price increases, the national average fell significantly—down approximately 7.0% compared to the same period the previous year.

Stronger distillate inventories and robust refinery output supported the market overall, even amid regional fluctuations in demand. Ultimately, improved supply, subdued seasonal demand, and increased exports to Europe contributed to the nationwide price decline. Quarter-on-quarter, U.S. diesel prices dropped by around 4%.

Asia-Pacific (APAC)

In China, diesel prices followed a downward trajectory in Q4 2024, driven by subdued domestic demand and a slowdown in industrial activity. October saw a brief price increase due to tightening fuel supply and reduced refinery output, as refiners scaled back production in response to weak margins. Compounding this, crude oil imports declined, tightening domestic supply.

However, demand remained sluggish, dampened by the broader economic deceleration and the shift toward alternative fuels such as LNG and electric vehicles. By November, diesel prices began to decline as industrial activity continued to slow, and seasonal demand from sectors like agriculture and construction diminished. Refineries adjusted by lowering prices to stimulate sales, while traders adopted a cautious procurement approach.

The downward trend persisted into December, especially in northern China where colder weather further suppressed diesel use. Despite steady supply levels, weak demand led to continued price cuts. Although diesel exports offered some support, overall market conditions remained soft, ending the quarter with a 2% decline from Q3 levels.

Get Real time Prices for Diesel : https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/diesel-1476

Europe

The European diesel market displayed mixed price behavior in Q4 2024, influenced by both economic and supply-side factors. Economic challenges—including inflation and tight monetary policy—curbed fuel consumption, particularly in major markets like Germany and France. The ongoing transition to electric and hybrid vehicles also continued to erode diesel demand.

At the same time, refining margins fell to multi-year lows due to waning demand and rising operational costs. These factors, combined with concerns over potential refinery closures in the UK and Germany, added uncertainty to the supply outlook. Nonetheless, Europe remained well-supplied, supported by increased diesel imports from the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Looking ahead, the outlook for diesel prices in Europe remains uncertain. Structural demand decline, shifting global supply dynamics, and regional refinery closures are expected to keep pressure on prices, though supply chain adjustments may provide some stabilization in the near term.

South America

In Brazil, diesel prices rose steadily throughout Q4 2024, influenced by strong domestic demand, supply constraints, and external market dynamics. October saw stable prices despite global market fluctuations, supported by high import volumes—especially from Russia—and strong agricultural demand during the corn harvest season.

In November, prices edged higher due to sustained demand and Petrobras’ pricing policies. A weaker Brazilian real further increased the cost of imports, although expanded refining capacity helped offset some of the upward pressure. By December, a more notable price increase occurred, driven by rising import costs and a widening price gap between imported and domestic diesel, particularly at major ports like Santos and Itaqui.

Despite increased local production, Brazil remained heavily reliant on imports, which continued to push prices upward. Overall, diesel prices in Brazil rose by about 1% compared to the previous quarter.

Get Real time Prices for Diesel : https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/diesel-1476

 

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