U.S. Diesel Prices 2025, Size, Trend, Graph, Chart and Forecast

North America

In Q4 2024, diesel prices in the United States trended downward due to increased supply and a mild economic slowdown. October saw a brief price uptick, but by November, prices declined as refineries resumed full operations following maintenance shutdowns.

The restoration of refinery output eased supply constraints, putting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, an unexpectedly warm start to winter reduced heating oil demand, further contributing to the decline. By December, the trend persisted as inventories grew and diesel consumption softened due to milder winter conditions and lower domestic demand. While some regions, such as California, experienced slight price increases, the national average dropped approximately 7.0% year-over-year.

A rise in distillate inventories and robust refinery output helped stabilize the market despite regional demand variations. Overall, the combination of strong supply, weaker seasonal demand, and increased diesel exports to Europe led to a 4% quarterly price decline in the U.S.

Get Real time Prices for Diesel: https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/diesel-1476

APAC

In Q4 2024, diesel prices in China followed a declining trend, driven by weak domestic demand and reduced industrial activity. October saw an initial price increase due to tightening fuel supply and lower refining output. Refiners cut production amid weak margins, and China's refining throughput declined year-over-year for the sixth consecutive month. Reduced crude oil imports further pressured the market, though the price rise was limited by sluggish demand, economic slowdowns, and the transition to alternative energy sources like LNG and electric vehicles.

By November, prices began to fall as demand weakened, particularly in agriculture and construction. Seasonal slowdowns in these sectors, along with reduced industrial activity, curbed diesel consumption. Refineries responded by lowering prices to boost sales, while cautious procurement from traders kept further price increases in check.

The downtrend persisted into December, particularly in northern China, where colder weather further reduced diesel usage. Despite steady refinery output, weak domestic demand led to continued price declines. Diesel exports provided some market support, but overall, the region ended the quarter with a 2% price drop compared to the previous quarter.

Europe

The European diesel market exhibited mixed trends in Q4 2024, shaped by economic challenges and supply-side factors. High inflation and central bank tightening weighed on demand, with major economies like Germany and France seeing notable declines in diesel consumption. The continued shift toward electric and hybrid vehicles further eroded diesel demand, as fewer diesel-powered passenger vehicles were registered.

On the refining side, diesel margins dropped significantly, reaching multi-year lows due to weakening demand and rising operational costs driven by energy price inflation.

Supply-side uncertainties also influenced the market. Anticipated refinery closures in the UK and Germany raised concerns over future refining capacity. However, Europe compensated by increasing diesel imports, particularly from the U.S. Gulf Coast, which helped stabilize supply despite weakening domestic demand.

Looking ahead, European diesel prices remain uncertain. Refinery closures and global supply chain developments, including geopolitical shifts in Russia and the Middle East, could impact prices in the medium term. However, the structural decline in diesel demand, influenced by the energy transition and weaker economic conditions, is likely to keep downward pressure on prices in the near future.

South America

In Q4 2024, diesel prices in Brazil followed a consistent upward trend due to supply challenges, strong demand, and global market fluctuations. October remained relatively stable despite volatility in global diesel markets. While international prices declined, Brazil's prices held steady due to strong imports and high agricultural demand, particularly during the corn harvest. Diesel imports reached a two-year high, with Russia as the primary supplier, though high port inventories and a seasonal demand dip exerted some pressure.

November saw a slight price increase, reflecting stable supply-demand dynamics and Petrobras’ interventions in the market. The depreciation of the Brazilian real raised import costs, though domestic refining expansion helped maintain some balance. By December, diesel prices climbed further as import costs rose, driven by currency fluctuations. The price gap between imported and domestic diesel widened, especially at key ports like Santos and Itaqui. Despite higher domestic production, Brazil’s reliance on imports sustained upward price pressure, leading to a 1% increase for the quarter.

Get Real time Prices for Diesel: https://www.chemanalyst.com/Pricing-data/diesel-1476

 

 

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